Driver’s memo #11: Market watch

Kia ora koutou

Please speak up at our public launch:  We are on track for the public launch of Flip the Fleet on Wednesday 28 June.   We would like your help to promote it in your local media and networks –please contact us ASAP (henrik@ecosystemsconsultants.co.nz) for an info pack if you want to become our spokesperson in your own community.

June’s 1-click survey:  We asked you whether “Flip the Fleet should report kg of greenhouse gases avoided by my EV in terms of other contributions to climate change and its mitigation e.g. number of cows and tourist visits supported, flights compensated, virtual trees planted, etc.” .  The debate was spirited and thoughtful – thanks – that’s just what we need to design the project to work best for you.  A summary of the votes and comments is at https://flipthefleet.org/2017/flip-the-fleet-should-report-kg/.  We have decided to trial some positive examples of these alternative ways of measuring the benefits of EVs beyond kg of emissions avoided, but only after vigorous scientific peer review of the way they are calculated.

EV market watch:  You have all generously shared your purchase price and date-of-purchase for your EVs.  We will mainly use these for calculating your ‘Return on Investment’, but the collective information can also give valuable clues on how the EV market is shifting.  Here we provide a very preliminary analysis of changes in Leaf (24 kWh) prices over the past three years – sorry, we don’t yet have enough data on other models and for earlier years yet to make much sense of the patterns.  The graph shows the average price paid for a Leaf that was 1,2,3 … years old at the time it was purchased in each of the last three years.

The second hand EV market is obviously very complex – as well as local demand increasing, the cost of second-hand imports will be affected by exchange rates and competition from other countries for second hand EVs in Japan’s and UK’s second-hand market.  So we don’t know for sure what drives these patterns and where they’ll go in future.  There is a lot of individual variation, some of which probably relates to battery State of Health.  However, two things seem clear from the data so far: Leafs of a given age (especially 1 and 2 year old models) have been getting cheaper to buy in NZ in recent years; and relatively old Leafs are still only marginally cheaper than newer ones.   Perhaps there are many more people able to buy cars in the $15,000 to $20,000 range than in the $20,000 to $30,000 range?   If so, increased demand may be holding up prices of the 5 and 6-year old Leafs?   But also New Zealand importers are tending to select lower mileage EVs if they are 5 or 6 years old, probably in order to sell them quickly and to keep the price high. So far only 2 of 127 members of Flip the Fleet are not the first owner of their car in New Zealand – so, unsurprisingly, LEV owners are hanging on to their wonderful cars.  It will be interesting to see how market prices hold up for second and third ownership cycles once they are already in New Zealand.  What do you think will most influence these prices?

 

Cheers

Henrik, Dima and Jefferson